BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Tree Swallow Population Trend in Vermont

All statesAerial insectivores

Tree Swallow in Vermont has fallen sharply: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-72%Since 1968
26Routes In State
58Years

Notable Tree Swallow Trends in Vermont

long arc declinecomputed index

Tree Swallow has fallen sharply in Vermont: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Tree Swallow Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, Tree Swallow in Vermont is projected to fall about 79% by 2029 — from 5.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–8.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-79%Change by 2029
1.1Projected 2029 index
0.00–8.495% range
±32.2%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20252.40.009.7
20262.10.009.4
20271.80.009.0
20281.40.008.7
20291.10.008.4

Tree Swallow Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording Tree Swallow in Vermont.
Hinesburg3419941966
East Haven1920241966
Waterville1619801967
Hardwick1320241966
Grand Isle1320241967
Landgrove1120241966
Greensboro1120241967
Newbury720041986
Gaysville620191966
St Johnsbury620241970
Fletcher620241968
S Reading420241966
Shaftsbury320241966
Middlesex320241968
Colchester320241986
Bristol320181995
S Wallingfrd220221966
W Rutland220231966
Newbury 2220232005
Stowe220231988
Marlboro120241966
North Pownal120241966
Stratton120241966
Post Mills120241966
Northfld Fls120211980

Tree Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.