BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Tree Swallow Population Trend in Texas

All statesAerial insectivores

Tree Swallow in Texas has collapsed: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1990.

-83%Since 1990TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
18YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Tree Swallow Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Tree Swallow in Texas. See the full index history below.

Tree Swallow Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Tree Swallow in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±225.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±225.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Tree Swallow in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±225.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.010.000.06
20270.010.000.06
20280.010.000.06
20290.010.000.06
20300.010.000.06

Tree Swallow Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Tree Swallow in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Raymondville719901990
Caledonia520102010
Chandler 2520112011
Crossroads320132011
Town Bluff220082008
Peach Creek219711971
Oak Grove 2220122012
Osage220152015
Friona220012001
Stowell220181972
Easton220131997
Cottonwood120172017
Hinkles Fer119721972
Walburg120232012
Carlos120122012
Pidcoke120132013
Pidcoke 2120252025
Athens120082008

Tree Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.