BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Tree Swallow Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesAerial insectivores

Tree Swallow in Arkansas has risen sharply: up 73% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

+73%Since 1983TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
35YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Tree Swallow Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Tree Swallow has risen sharply in Arkansas: up 73% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

Tree Swallow Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Tree Swallow in Arkansas is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 0.21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.00–0.42). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.18Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Tree Swallow in Arkansas is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 0.21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.00–0.42). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.180.000.41
20260.180.000.42
20270.180.000.42
20280.180.000.42
20290.180.000.42

Tree Swallow Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Tree Swallow in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Maynard420241996
Harrisburg319851983
Stark320231990
Stamps219971997
Ashdown220182018
South Bend220231993
Fulton220112002
Hughes120111973
Hollywood119691969
Augusta119951995
Saffell120042004
Rupert119951995
Coal Hill120212008
Massard119981996
Zion120142014
Compton120042004
Avoca120052005
Yellville120222022
Ravenden Springs120102010
Lafe120222022
Gillett120162011
Ulm120241989
Nance120162014
Wilson120242024

Tree Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.