BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Tree Swallow Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesAerial insectivores

Tree Swallow in Arkansas has increased: up 38% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

+38%Since 1983TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
36YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Tree Swallow Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Tree Swallow in Arkansas. See the full index history below.

Tree Swallow Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Tree Swallow in Arkansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.17 (95% range 0.00–0.41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±124.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.17Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±124.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Tree Swallow in Arkansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.17 (95% range 0.00–0.41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±124.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.170.000.40
20270.170.000.41
20280.170.000.41
20290.170.000.41
20300.170.000.41

Tree Swallow Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Tree Swallow in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Maynard420241996
Harrisburg319851983
Stark320231990
Stamps219971997
Ashdown220182018
Fulton220112002
Hughes120111973
South Bend120251993
Hollywood119691969
Augusta119951995
Saffell120042004
Rupert119951995
Coal Hill120212008
Massard119981996
Zion120142014
Compton120042004
Avoca120052005
Yellville120222022
Ravenden Springs120102010
Lafe120222022
Gillett120162011
Ulm120241989
Nance120162014
Wilson120242024

Tree Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.