BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Tree Swallow Population Trend in New York

All statesAerial insectivores

Tree Swallow in New York has edged down: down 23% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-23%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
129Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Tree Swallow Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Tree Swallow in New York. See the full index history below.

Tree Swallow Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Tree Swallow in New York is projected to rise about 145% by 2030 — from 2.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.9 (95% range 3.4–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±99.4%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+145%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.4–1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±99.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Tree Swallow in New York is projected to rise about 145% by 2030 — from 2.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.9 (95% range 3.4–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±99.4%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.93.510
20276.93.510
20286.93.510
20296.93.510
20306.93.410

Tree Swallow Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Tree Swallow in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ballston Lk3419951967
Mcdonough2620171970
Durham2519761966
Argyle2220241970
S Berne2120131967
Romulus2120001972
West Bangor2119991990
Swain2020071967
Hope Falls2019951968
Alder Creek1820041974
Macdougall1620251971
Lisle1220221967
Vestal Ctr1220191966
Watertown1220121967
Dexter Lake1219751968
Jones Beach1120131966
Westbrookvle1120191966
Branchport1120241968
Warwick 21120131975
Meridale1020251967
Nashville1020181972
Petersburg920151966
Dryden920251966
Pulaski920251967
N Wilmurt919981967

Tree Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.