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Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Tree Swallow Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesAerial insectivores

Tree Swallow in Minnesota has risen sharply: up 69% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+69%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
91Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Tree Swallow Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Tree Swallow has risen sharply in Minnesota: up 69% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Tree Swallow Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Tree Swallow in Minnesota is projected to rise about 43% by 2029 — from 6.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.6 (95% range 3.9–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±97.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+43%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.9–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±97.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Tree Swallow in Minnesota is projected to rise about 43% by 2029 — from 6.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.6 (95% range 3.9–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±97.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20258.43.713
20268.43.813
20278.53.813
20288.53.913
20298.63.913

Tree Swallow Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Tree Swallow in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Edwards4520241973
Appleton2820241978
Bagley2720061995
St Stephen2620161968
Brook Park2120241998
Chokio2020241970
Sherburne Nr2020241990
New London1920241994
Tracy1720242004
Knapp1620241968
Osseo1520241967
Glenwood1520191993
Brainerd1520241993
Ashby1420211997
Backus1320241967
Whitewater 21320192011
Debs1220231970
Lude1220231978
Wigwam Bay1020231967
Chatfield 21020242005
Whitewater1020001994
Island Lake819951967
Beltrami820241967
Worthington820242004
Tenney720161978

Tree Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.