BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Tree Swallow Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesAerial insectivores

Tree Swallow in Minnesota has risen sharply: up 69% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+69%Since 1969
91Routes In State
57Years

Notable Tree Swallow Trends in Minnesota

long arc increasecomputed index

Tree Swallow has risen sharply in Minnesota: up 69% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Tree Swallow Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Tree Swallow in Minnesota is projected to rise about 43% by 2029 — from 6.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.6 (95% range 3.9–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±97.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+43%Change by 2029
8.6Projected 2029 index
3.9–1395% range
±97.4%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20258.43.713
20268.43.813
20278.53.813
20288.53.913
20298.63.913

Tree Swallow Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Tree Swallow in Minnesota.
Edwards4520241973
Appleton2820241978
Bagley2720061995
St Stephen2620161968
Brook Park2120241998
Chokio2020241970
Sherburne Nr2020241990
New London1920241994
Tracy1720242004
Knapp1620241968
Osseo1520241967
Glenwood1520191993
Brainerd1520241993
Ashby1420211997
Backus1320241967
Whitewater 21320192011
Debs1220231970
Lude1220231978
Wigwam Bay1020231967
Chatfield 21020242005
Whitewater1020001994
Island Lake819951967
Beltrami820241967
Worthington820242004
Tenney720161978

Tree Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.