BirdAnalyst
Species · Georgia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Tree Swallow Population Trend in Georgia

All statesAerial insectivores

Tree Swallow in Georgia has surged: up 330% on the route-weighted index since 1991.

+330%Since 1991TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
23YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Tree Swallow Trends in GeorgiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Tree Swallow in Georgia. See the full index history below.

Tree Swallow Population Forecast in Georgia

If the recent trend holds, Tree Swallow in Georgia is projected to rise about 123% by 2030 — from 0.09 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.06–0.35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+123%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.20Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.06–0.3595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Tree Swallow in Georgia is projected to rise about 123% by 2030 — from 0.09 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.06–0.35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19882030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.180.040.33
20270.190.050.33
20280.190.050.34
20290.200.060.34
20300.200.060.35

Tree Swallow Survey Routes in Georgia

Routes recording Tree Swallow in Georgia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Amos Mill1120222013
Mountain Cty820242011
Baxter720222010
Oakman220232006
Stoney Point 2220232023
Big Oak220242024
Pitts219901990
Sunny Side220152014
Pleasant Hill220252006
Lincolnton 2220192019
Whitesburg220212021
Forsyth119901990
Maxeys120232022
Athens120252017
Coffee Co119911991
Cartersville120252001
Doles120092009
Baldwin120172017
Bowdon120252025
Linwood120181988
Stockbridge120062006
Deepstep120122012
Thornton Road120252025
Weber120232023
Hebron120212021

Tree Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.