BirdAnalyst
Species · Georgia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Tree Swallow Population Trend in Georgia

All statesAerial insectivores

Tree Swallow in Georgia has surged: up 629% on the route-weighted index since 1991.

+629%Since 1991TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
22YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Tree Swallow Trends in GeorgiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Tree Swallow has surged in Georgia: up 629% on the route-weighted index since 1991.

Tree Swallow Population Forecast in Georgia

If the recent trend holds, Tree Swallow in Georgia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.21 (95% range 0.07–0.35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.21Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.07–0.3595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±53.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Tree Swallow in Georgia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.21 (95% range 0.07–0.35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19882029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.190.050.33
20260.200.060.34
20270.200.060.34
20280.210.070.35
20290.210.070.35

Tree Swallow Survey Routes in Georgia

Routes recording Tree Swallow in Georgia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Amos Mill1120222013
Mountain Cty820242011
Baxter720222010
Cartersville320242001
Oakman220232006
Stoney Point 2220232023
Big Oak220242024
Pitts219901990
Sunny Side220152014
Pleasant Hill220232006
Lincolnton 2220192019
Whitesburg220212021
Forsyth119901990
Maxeys120232022
Athens120172017
Coffee Co119911991
Doles120092009
Baldwin120172017
Linwood120181988
Stockbridge120062006
Deepstep120122012
Weber120232023
Hebron120212021
Woodstock120212021
Davis Crossroads120152015

Tree Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.