BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Tree Swallow Population Trend in Michigan

All statesAerial insectivores

Tree Swallow in Michigan has held roughly steady: up 5% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+5%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
104Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Tree Swallow Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Tree Swallow in Michigan. See the full index history below.

Tree Swallow Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Tree Swallow in Michigan is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 4.3 (95% range 0.00–9.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-6%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–9.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Tree Swallow in Michigan is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 4.3 (95% range 0.00–9.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.60.0010
20274.50.009.9
20284.50.009.9
20294.40.009.8
20304.30.009.7

Tree Swallow Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Tree Swallow in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Herron4020162011
Lapeer3420252000
Cohoctah2520252021
Frederic2320031971
Cathro1720161967
Cunard1620211973
Pleasant Val1619971967
Holt1620251970
Richmond1520241999
Cedar Run1419991994
Hamburg1420001985
Big Blue Lk1320251979
Lake City1320221970
Pleasant Valley 21220252004
Rochester1220251993
Big Rapids1119901971
Bell Oak 21120252016
Bootjack1020231967
Riggsville1020191967
Skeels1020151966
North Branch1019991974
Hamburg 21020252004
Adrian920182004
Drayton Plns919871973
Nashville820251968

Tree Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.