BirdAnalyst
Species · Maryland · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Tree Swallow Population Trend in Maryland

All statesAerial insectivores

Tree Swallow in Maryland has surged: up 535% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+535%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
71Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Tree Swallow Trends in MarylandNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Tree Swallow has surged in Maryland: up 535% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Tree Swallow Population Forecast in Maryland

If the recent trend holds, Tree Swallow in Maryland is projected to rise about 17% by 2030 — from 3.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.9 (95% range 3.0–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+17%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.0–4.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Tree Swallow in Maryland is projected to rise about 17% by 2030 — from 3.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.9 (95% range 3.0–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.62.74.6
20273.72.84.6
20283.82.84.7
20293.82.94.8
20303.93.04.8

Tree Swallow Survey Routes in Maryland

Routes recording Tree Swallow in Maryland.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Madison4020251966
Smithsburg2520131996
Jessup1720252015
Honga1320251968
Earlton1220242014
Van Bibber820131978
Elkton620251970
Piney Neck620251971
Furnace Town620242017
Emmitsburg520251994
Piney Grove520251997
Forest Grove520232011
Floyd420251967
Vindex420221975
Oldtown420251990
Eklo420171997
Millington420251967
Easton420251995
Accident420151992
Potomac Park320241986
Williamsport320251992
Wolfsville320251986
Silver Spg319821977
Melitota320251966
Severna Park320012001

Tree Swallow Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.