BirdAnalyst
Species · Alaska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Alder Flycatcher Population Trend in Alaska

All statesAerial insectivores

Alder Flycatcher in Alaska has declined: down 27% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

-27%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
114Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Alder Flycatcher Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Alder Flycatcher in Alaska. See the full index history below.

Alder Flycatcher Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Alder Flycatcher in Alaska is projected to fall about 25% by 2029 — from 18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 0.00–33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-25%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Alder Flycatcher in Alaska is projected to fall about 25% by 2029 — from 18 in 2024 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 0.00–33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025140.0033
2026140.0033
2027140.0033
2028140.0033
2029140.0033

Alder Flycatcher Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Alder Flycatcher in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Burma Road12920241996
Mud River10120241993
Hather Creek9520241993
Cottonwood9319901987
Petersville8920241986
Tupuknuk8719951995
Circle7620241986
Elmendorf (Short)7319851984
Willow6920241993
Kanuti Lake6420242006
Wasilla6119831983
Ruby5120241994
Nicholai Sl4720241993
Moose Creek4520221993
Hatcher Pass4420241982
Cohoe4420232012
Ft. Richrdsn4420231994
Homer4119821977
L Salcha4120231982
Eagle4020241982
Northway3820231989
Kanuti Canyn3820241993
Mcgrath3820221997
Goose Bay3719821975
Chicken3620241992

Alder Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

connecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-dakotavermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.