BirdAnalyst
Species · Alaska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Alder Flycatcher Population Trend in Alaska

All statesAerial insectivores

Alder Flycatcher in Alaska has declined: down 32% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

-32%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
114Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Alder Flycatcher Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Alder Flycatcher in Alaska. See the full index history below.

Alder Flycatcher Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Alder Flycatcher in Alaska is projected to fall about 22% by 2030 — from 18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 0.00–33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Alder Flycatcher in Alaska is projected to fall about 22% by 2030 — from 18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 0.00–33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026140.0033
2027140.0033
2028140.0033
2029140.0033
2030140.0033

Alder Flycatcher Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Alder Flycatcher in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Burma Road13320251996
Mud River10120241993
Hather Creek9520241993
Cottonwood9319901987
Petersville9020251986
Tupuknuk8719951995
Elmendorf (Short)7319851984
Kanuti Lake6420242006
Wasilla6119831983
Ruby5920251994
Hatcher Pass5420251982
Willow5220251993
Sheep Mtn4820251983
Moose Creek4520221993
Cohoe4420232012
Ft. Richrdsn4420231994
Lake Louise4220251993
Circle4120251986
Homer4119821977
Chistochina4020251990
Kanuti Canyn3820241993
Mcgrath3820221997
Goose Bay3719821975
Seven Lakes3620251986
Eagle3520251982

Alder Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

connecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-dakotavermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.