BirdAnalyst
Species · Ohio · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Alder Flycatcher Population Trend in Ohio

All statesAerial insectivores

Alder Flycatcher in Ohio has collapsed: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

-82%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
30YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Alder Flycatcher Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Alder Flycatcher has collapsed in Ohio: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Alder Flycatcher Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Alder Flycatcher in Ohio is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±144.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±144.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Alder Flycatcher in Ohio is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±144.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.000.000.07
20250.000.000.07
20260.000.000.07
20270.000.000.07
20280.000.000.07

Alder Flycatcher Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Alder Flycatcher in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Garrettsvile319881975
Bloomville220072007
Pittsfield220141992
Omega119931992
Meadowbrook119931993
Limestone120032003
Mohican S.F.120232023
Wayland120091997
Middlefield120031973
Strongsville119761973
Cumberland120152015
Hiram120131992
Lenox119811976
Herner Crns120221985
Kalida119961996
Keene119951993

Alder Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alaskaconnecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomapennsylvaniasouth-dakotavermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.