BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Alder Flycatcher Population Trend in New York

All statesAerial insectivores

Alder Flycatcher in New York has surged: up 612% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+612%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
105Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Alder Flycatcher Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Alder Flycatcher has surged in New York: up 612% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Alder Flycatcher Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Alder Flycatcher in New York is projected to rise about 23% by 2029 — from 2.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 1.7–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+23%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.7–3.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Alder Flycatcher in New York is projected to rise about 23% by 2029 — from 2.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 1.7–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.41.63.3
20262.51.63.3
20272.51.63.4
20282.51.73.4
20292.61.73.4

Alder Flycatcher Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Alder Flycatcher in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
West Bangor2319991990
St Regis Fls1520171976
Dryden1120241975
Degrasse1120241980
Phillips Cr1020241970
Wanakena1020241980
Platte Cove920181981
Swain 2820242011
Dannemora720061968
Ellenburg720061989
S Berne 2720242014
Meridale620241993
Mcdonough620171967
Oriskany Fls620231973
Highmarket620241968
Milford620231984
Horseshoe L.620171992
Duanesburg520241994
Nashville520181999
Ogdensburg520241981
Sciota520061974
Medusa420231994
S Berne420131967
Laurens420241979
Oneonta420241974

Alder Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alaskaconnecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananew-hampshirenew-jerseynorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-dakotavermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.