BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Alder Flycatcher Population Trend in New York

All statesAerial insectivores

Alder Flycatcher in New York has surged: up 758% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+758%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
105Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Alder Flycatcher Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Alder Flycatcher has surged in New York: up 757% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Alder Flycatcher Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Alder Flycatcher in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.6 (95% range 1.8–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.8–3.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Alder Flycatcher in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.6 (95% range 1.8–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.51.63.3
20272.51.73.4
20282.51.73.4
20292.61.73.4
20302.61.83.5

Alder Flycatcher Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Alder Flycatcher in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
West Bangor2319991990
St Regis Fls1520171976
Meridale1120251993
Dryden1120251975
Ogdensburg1020251981
S Berne 21020252014
Platte Cove920181981
Oneonta820251974
Phillips Cr820251970
Dannemora720061968
Ellenburg720061989
Mcdonough620171967
Oriskany Fls620251973
Milford620231984
Horseshoe L.620171992
Nashville520181999
North River520251969
Degrasse520251980
Wanakena520251980
Parishville520251997
Sciota520061974
Medusa420231994
Duanesburg420251994
S Berne420131967
Mt Morris420251974

Alder Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alaskaconnecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananew-hampshirenew-jerseynorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-dakotavermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.