Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Alder Flycatcher Population Trend in Minnesota
Alder Flycatcher in Minnesota has risen sharply: up 71% on the route-weighted index since 1969.
+71%Since 1969
62Routes In State
57Years
Notable Alder Flycatcher Trends in Minnesota
long arc increasecomputed index
Alder Flycatcher has risen sharply in Minnesota: up 71% on the route-weighted index since 1969.
Alder Flycatcher Population Forecast in Minnesota
If the recent trend holds, Alder Flycatcher in Minnesota is projected to rise about 40% by 2029 — from 3.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.7 (95% range 3.2–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
+40%Change by 2029
4.7Projected 2029 index
3.2–6.295% range
±19.6%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 6.1 |
| 2026 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 6.1 |
| 2027 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 6.1 |
| 2028 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 6.2 |
| 2029 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 6.2 |
Alder Flycatcher Survey Routes in Minnesota
| Sherry Lake | 78 | 2022 | 1969 |
| Cromwell | 18 | 2024 | 1967 |
| Jordan | 17 | 2023 | 1993 |
| Chisholm | 17 | 2024 | 2019 |
| Glendale | 13 | 2024 | 1993 |
| Floodwood | 12 | 2024 | 1967 |
| Lude | 12 | 2023 | 1978 |
| Badger | 12 | 2018 | 1978 |
| Mahtowa | 11 | 2023 | 1993 |
| Hart Lake | 10 | 2024 | 1967 |
| Waskish | 10 | 2024 | 1978 |
| Greenbush | 10 | 2024 | 1993 |
| Nett Lake | 9 | 2024 | 2013 |
| Mcgregor | 9 | 2024 | 1993 |
| Bigfork | 9 | 2024 | 1993 |
| Hovland | 8 | 2024 | 1973 |
| Cohasset | 8 | 2022 | 1973 |
| Little Fork | 8 | 2024 | 1970 |
| Sawbill Camp | 8 | 2024 | 1993 |
| Wigwam Bay | 7 | 2023 | 1967 |
| Pine River | 7 | 2024 | 1967 |
| Lockport | 6 | 2024 | 1967 |
| Crane Lake | 5 | 2024 | 1970 |
| Nebish | 4 | 2023 | 1983 |
| Evergreen | 4 | 2024 | 1967 |
Alder Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.