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Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Alder Flycatcher Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesAerial insectivores

Alder Flycatcher in Minnesota has risen sharply: up 71% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+71%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
62Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Alder Flycatcher Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Alder Flycatcher has risen sharply in Minnesota: up 71% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Alder Flycatcher Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Alder Flycatcher in Minnesota is projected to rise about 40% by 2029 — from 3.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.7 (95% range 3.2–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+40%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.2–6.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Alder Flycatcher in Minnesota is projected to rise about 40% by 2029 — from 3.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.7 (95% range 3.2–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.63.16.1
20264.63.16.1
20274.63.16.1
20284.73.26.2
20294.73.26.2

Alder Flycatcher Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Alder Flycatcher in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sherry Lake7820221969
Cromwell1820241967
Jordan1720231993
Chisholm1720242019
Glendale1320241993
Floodwood1220241967
Lude1220231978
Badger1220181978
Mahtowa1120231993
Hart Lake1020241967
Waskish1020241978
Greenbush1020241993
Nett Lake920242013
Mcgregor920241993
Bigfork920241993
Hovland820241973
Cohasset820221973
Little Fork820241970
Sawbill Camp820241993
Wigwam Bay720231967
Pine River720241967
Lockport620241967
Crane Lake520241970
Nebish420231983
Evergreen420241967

Alder Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alaskaconnecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmontananew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-dakotavermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.