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Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Alder Flycatcher Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesAerial insectivores

Alder Flycatcher in Minnesota has increased: up 46% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+46%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Alder Flycatcher Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Alder Flycatcher in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Alder Flycatcher Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Alder Flycatcher in Minnesota is projected to rise about 17% by 2030 — from 4.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.7 (95% range 3.2–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+17%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.2–6.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Alder Flycatcher in Minnesota is projected to rise about 17% by 2030 — from 4.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.7 (95% range 3.2–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.63.16.1
20274.63.16.1
20284.63.16.1
20294.73.26.1
20304.73.26.2

Alder Flycatcher Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Alder Flycatcher in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sherry Lake7820221969
Cromwell4020251967
Chisholm1720242019
Hart Lake1520251967
Jordan1520251993
Hovland1320251973
Mcgregor1320251993
Waskish1220251978
Badger1220181978
Mahtowa1120231993
Bigfork1120251993
Lude1020251978
Sherburne Nr920251991
Lockport920251967
Crane Lake920251970
Nett Lake920242013
Sawbill Lndg820251973
Cohasset820221973
Little Fork820241970
Red Lake820251993
Wigwam Bay720231967
Evergreen620251967
Floodwood620251967
Sawbill Camp520251993
Warroad520251995

Alder Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alaskaconnecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmontananew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-dakotavermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.