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Species · New Hampshire · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Alder Flycatcher Population Trend in New Hampshire

All statesAerial insectivores

Alder Flycatcher in New Hampshire has edged up: up 13% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+13%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Alder Flycatcher Trends in New HampshireNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Alder Flycatcher in New Hampshire. See the full index history below.

Alder Flycatcher Population Forecast in New Hampshire

If the recent trend holds, Alder Flycatcher in New Hampshire is projected to rise about 53% by 2029 — from 2.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.0 (95% range 2.7–5.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+53%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.7–5.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Alder Flycatcher in New Hampshire is projected to rise about 53% by 2029 — from 2.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.0 (95% range 2.7–5.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.92.65.2
20263.92.65.2
20273.92.65.3
20284.02.65.3
20294.02.75.3

Alder Flycatcher Survey Routes in New Hampshire

Routes recording Alder Flycatcher in New Hampshire.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Stratford1220241966
Dixvil Notch920171966
Dixville Notch 2720242018
Milan620241966
Jefferson Hl420241966
Clarksville420241966
Wilmot320241967
Mt Chocorua320241970
Walpole320241966
Marlow320241966
Franconia320221966
Jeffers Ntch320241993
Hopkinton220241967
Gilmantn I W220241970
Lempster220241971
Crawford Not219731966
Peterborough120211973
Brentwood119961973
Fitzwilliam120241966
Dover120061973
Epsom120051969
Concord120241971
Strafford120191971
Canterbury120231969
Glen120241975

Alder Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alaskaconnecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-dakotavermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.