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Species · New Hampshire · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Alder Flycatcher Population Trend in New Hampshire

All statesAerial insectivores

Alder Flycatcher in New Hampshire has held roughly steady: up 10% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+10%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Alder Flycatcher Trends in New HampshireNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Alder Flycatcher in New Hampshire. See the full index history below.

Alder Flycatcher Population Forecast in New Hampshire

If the recent trend holds, Alder Flycatcher in New Hampshire is projected to rise about 27% by 2030 — from 3.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.9 (95% range 2.6–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+27%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.6–5.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Alder Flycatcher in New Hampshire is projected to rise about 27% by 2030 — from 3.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.9 (95% range 2.6–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.92.55.2
20273.92.55.2
20283.92.65.2
20293.92.65.2
20303.92.65.2

Alder Flycatcher Survey Routes in New Hampshire

Routes recording Alder Flycatcher in New Hampshire.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dixville Notch 21620252018
Dixvil Notch920171966
Walpole820251966
Stratford820251966
Mt Chocorua720251970
Jefferson Hl720251966
Jeffers Ntch520251993
Marlow420251966
Canterbury320251969
Franconia320221966
Clarksville320251966
Hopkinton220251967
Concord220251971
Gilmantn I W220241970
Lempster220241971
Crawford Not219731966
Milan220251966
Peterborough120211973
Brentwood119961973
Fitzwilliam120251966
Dover120061973
Epsom120051969
Strafford120191971
Wilmot120251967
Glen120251975

Alder Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alaskaconnecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-dakotavermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.