BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Alder Flycatcher Population Trend in Michigan

All statesAerial insectivores

Alder Flycatcher in Michigan has surged: up 224% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+224%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
89Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Alder Flycatcher Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Alder Flycatcher has surged in Michigan: up 223% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Alder Flycatcher Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Alder Flycatcher in Michigan is projected to rise about 24% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 1.4–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+24%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.4–3.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Alder Flycatcher in Michigan is projected to rise about 24% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 1.4–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.41.33.5
20262.41.33.5
20272.51.43.5
20282.51.43.6
20292.51.43.6

Alder Flycatcher Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Alder Flycatcher in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pickford3520241973
Marenisco1720191981
Brocky Lake1220241980
Herman1020221983
Gilchrist920211976
Raco920241971
Scott'S Marsh920102006
Cathro820161967
Hubbard Lake819961976
Gibbs City720241979
Muskallonge720241977
Herron720162011
Ensign720102006
Ontonagon620191967
Tahquamenon620241976
Bootjack520231967
Ned Lake520241986
Ishpeming420231980
Maple Grove320241967
Shingleton320241967
Brush Creek320161975
Frederic320011986
Betchler Lks320231992
Cluster Lakes320102006
Gooseneck320102008

Alder Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alaskaconnecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowamainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamontananew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-dakotavermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.