BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Alder Flycatcher Population Trend in Michigan

All statesAerial insectivores

Alder Flycatcher in Michigan has surged: up 258% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+258%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
90Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Alder Flycatcher Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Alder Flycatcher has surged in Michigan: up 258% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Alder Flycatcher Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Alder Flycatcher in Michigan is projected to rise about 18% by 2030 — from 2.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 1.4–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+18%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.4–3.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Alder Flycatcher in Michigan is projected to rise about 18% by 2030 — from 2.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 1.4–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.41.33.5
20272.41.43.5
20282.51.43.5
20292.51.43.6
20302.51.43.6

Alder Flycatcher Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Alder Flycatcher in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Marenisco1720191981
Gibbs City1420251979
Herman1020221983
Ishpeming920251980
Gilchrist920211976
Raco920251971
Pickford920251973
Scott'S Marsh920102006
Shingleton820251967
Tahquamenon820251976
Cathro820161967
Hubbard Lake819961976
Brocky Lake720251980
Muskallonge720241977
Herron720162011
Ensign720102006
Ontonagon620191967
Ned Lake620251986
Bootjack520231967
Chippewa Lk.420251992
Crystal Fls320251989
Brush Creek320161975
Frederic320011986
Seney Nwr320251992
Cluster Lakes320102006

Alder Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alaskaconnecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowamainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamontananew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-dakotavermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.