BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Alder Flycatcher Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesAerial insectivores

Alder Flycatcher in North Dakota has held roughly steady: down 6% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

-6%Since 1981TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Alder Flycatcher Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Alder Flycatcher in North Dakota. See the full index history below.

Alder Flycatcher Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Alder Flycatcher in North Dakota is projected to fall about 35% by 2030 — from 0.30 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.00–0.48). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±127.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-35%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.19Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±127.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Alder Flycatcher in North Dakota is projected to fall about 35% by 2030 — from 0.30 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.00–0.48). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±127.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.200.000.48
20270.200.000.48
20280.190.000.48
20290.190.000.48
20300.190.000.48

Alder Flycatcher Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Alder Flycatcher in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cooperstown720252012
Turtle Mtns320241980
Kempton220032001
Abercrombie219701970
Emerado120221985
Douglas Crk120231998
Sheyenne Lk119991998
Nash120161985
Lakota119931993
Niles119921992
Loraine119981998
Stanley119971997
Denbigh120252007

Alder Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alaskaconnecticutidahoillinoisindianaiowamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamontananew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-dakotavermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.