BirdAnalyst
Guild · West Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Aerial Insectivores In West Virginia

All statesWest Virginia

16 species in this guild. As a group they are -43%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1968.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

guild collapsecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Aerial insectivores as a group have declined in West Virginia, down 43% since 1968.

Aerial Insectivores In West Virginia Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Aerial insectivores in West Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.1 (95% range 0.59–5.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-1%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.59–5.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Aerial insectivores in West Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.1 (95% range 0.59–5.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.20.665.7
20273.10.655.6
20283.10.635.6
20293.10.615.6
20303.10.595.6

Member Species In West Virginia

Aerial insectivores species in West Virginia.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Bank SwallowHirundinidae-97%
Cliff SwallowHirundinidae-87%
Eastern Whip-poor-willCaprimulgidae-85%
Chimney SwiftApodidae-70%
Great Crested FlycatcherTyrannidae-66%
Purple MartinHirundinidae-63%
Barn SwallowHirundinidae-37%
Northern Rough-winged SwallowHirundinidae-22%
Eastern KingbirdTyrannidae-20%
Willow FlycatcherTyrannidae-17%
Eastern Wood-PeweeTyrannidae-14%
Acadian FlycatcherTyrannidae-7%
Eastern PhoebeTyrannidae+5%
Alder FlycatcherTyrannidae+277%
Least FlycatcherTyrannidae+757%
Tree SwallowHirundinidae19×

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.