BirdAnalyst
Species · West Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in West Virginia

All statesAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in West Virginia has fallen sharply: down 67% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-67%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
62Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Crested Flycatcher Trends in West VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Crested Flycatcher has fallen sharply in West Virginia: down 67% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Forecast in West Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in West Virginia is projected to rise about 37% by 2029 — from 0.89 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.12–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+37%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.12–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in West Virginia is projected to rise about 37% by 2029 — from 0.89 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.12–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.40.282.5
20261.30.242.5
20271.30.202.4
20281.30.162.4
20291.20.122.3

Great Crested Flycatcher Survey Routes in West Virginia

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in West Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sleepy Creek1119901966
Shanghai1120221995
Rio819951974
Hix520241970
Pedro520231979
Fayetteville519961980
Denmar520241980
Albright519741966
Arlee419791966
Mo Of Seneca420241969
Washburn420221974
Bramwell320221978
Nicut320221986
Mt Storm319751968
Martinsburg320241966
Ruthbelle320241975
Smoot220241980
Welch220191992
Richwood220241980
Green Bank220241977
Slate220241980
Moundsville220211972
Monongah220191966
Berryburg219951975
Bebee220121972

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.