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Species · West Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in West Virginia

All statesAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in West Virginia has fallen sharply: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-66%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
63Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Crested Flycatcher Trends in West VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Crested Flycatcher has fallen sharply in West Virginia: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Forecast in West Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in West Virginia is projected to fall about 20% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.10–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-20%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.10–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in West Virginia is projected to fall about 20% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.10–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.40.262.4
20271.30.222.4
20281.30.182.4
20291.20.142.3
20301.20.102.3

Great Crested Flycatcher Survey Routes in West Virginia

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in West Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sleepy Creek1119901966
Rio819951974
Martinsburg820251966
Shanghai720251995
Hix620251970
Lost River620251996
Smoot520251980
Fayetteville519961980
Albright519741966
Arlee419791966
Nicut320221986
Denmar320251980
Mt Storm319751968
Ringgold320252025
Pedro220251979
Welch220191992
Canaan220251974
Three Forks220251971
Sugar Grove220251966
Slate220251980
Moundsville220211972
Monongah220191966
Berryburg219951975
Bebee220121972
Greer220171966

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.