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Species · Alabama · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Alabama

All statesAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in Alabama has risen sharply: up 53% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+53%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
109Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Crested Flycatcher Trends in AlabamaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Crested Flycatcher has risen sharply in Alabama: up 53% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Forecast in Alabama

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Alabama is projected to fall about 11% by 2030 — from 10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 9.2 (95% range 7.7–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-11%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.7–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±7.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Alabama is projected to fall about 11% by 2030 — from 10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 9.2 (95% range 7.7–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20268.97.510
20279.07.510
20289.17.611
20299.17.711
20309.27.711

Great Crested Flycatcher Survey Routes in Alabama

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in Alabama.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Elamville2520251984
Grove Hill2220231983
Warrior Std2020251966
Helicon2020251996
Sprague1920251966
Eufaula1920241996
Carrollton1820251994
Vina1820231996
Sunny Eve1720251966
Greensboro1720251966
Liberty City 21720252017
Nixburg 21720252000
Appleton1620231993
Bon Secour1620231993
Castleberry1520251966
Fairview1520251990
Calebee1520251993
Mt. Gilead1520251993
Perdido1520252021
Alabama Pt 21520192004
Greensport1420251966
Riderwood1420231966
Cottonton1420251966
Brundidge1420211966
Blocton1420251969

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

arkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.