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Species · Alabama · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Alabama

All statesAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in Alabama has increased: up 41% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+41%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
109Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Crested Flycatcher Trends in AlabamaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Crested Flycatcher in Alabama. See the full index history below.

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Forecast in Alabama

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Alabama is projected to rise about 11% by 2029 — from 8.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.0 (95% range 7.6–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+11%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.6–1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±4.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Alabama is projected to rise about 11% by 2029 — from 8.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.0 (95% range 7.6–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20258.87.410
20268.87.410
20278.97.510
20289.07.510
20299.07.610

Great Crested Flycatcher Survey Routes in Alabama

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in Alabama.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Liberty City 22320242017
Grove Hill2220231983
Elamville2120241984
Eufaula1920241996
Castleberry1820241966
Calebee1820241993
Vina1820231996
Appleton1620231993
Bon Secour1620231993
Warrior Std1520241966
Cottonton1520241966
Alabama Pt 21520192004
Riderwood1420231966
Brundidge1420211966
Sunny Eve1320241966
Newton1320241966
Greensport1220241966
Sprague1220241966
Brantley1220241966
Epes1220241981
Whitehall1220241983
Escatawpa1220231983
Carrollton1220241994
Gainestown Ferry1220151999
Holt1120241993

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

arkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.