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Species · Indiana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Indiana

All statesAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in Indiana has edged down: down 15% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-15%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Crested Flycatcher Trends in IndianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Crested Flycatcher in Indiana. See the full index history below.

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Forecast in Indiana

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Indiana is projected to fall about 29% by 2030 — from 3.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 1.3–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-29%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–3.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Indiana is projected to fall about 29% by 2030 — from 3.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 1.3–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.41.43.5
20272.41.33.4
20282.41.33.4
20292.41.33.4
20302.41.33.4

Great Crested Flycatcher Survey Routes in Indiana

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in Indiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pimento1420251981
Indian Spgs1220251984
Cyprss1120252006
Galveston1020251981
Monticello920251981
Brookville920251966
Georgia920251999
Friendswood820241986
Spencer620241967
Corydon620251966
Frankfort620222001
Wallace620241999
Knox520251981
Packertown520041967
Thorntown520251982
Celestine520251979
Indiana Dune520251993
Tipton419921966
Muncie419971981
Wabash420251981
Jamestown420251987
Clear Spring420251981
Laporte420221999
Witts Station420252000
Millersburg320241987

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.