BirdAnalyst
Species · Indiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Indiana

All statesAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in Indiana has edged down: down 21% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-21%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Crested Flycatcher Trends in IndianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Crested Flycatcher in Indiana. See the full index history below.

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Forecast in Indiana

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Indiana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.3 (95% range 1.3–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–3.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Indiana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.3 (95% range 1.3–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.31.33.4
20262.31.33.4
20272.31.33.4
20282.31.33.3
20292.31.33.3

Great Crested Flycatcher Survey Routes in Indiana

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in Indiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Georgia1120241999
Celestine920241979
Friendswood820241986
Jamestown820241987
Pimento620241981
Spencer620241967
Shelbyville620231985
Brookville620241966
Frankfort620222001
Wallace620241999
Packertown520041967
Monticello520241981
Clear Spring520241981
Corydon520241966
Newberry520242000
Tipton419921966
Muncie419971981
Wabash420241981
Crown Point420242001
Laporte420221999
Witts Station420242000
Cyprss420242006
Kankakee Sands420232000
Middlebury320241990
Thorntown320241982

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.