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Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in Pennsylvania has declined: down 39% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-39%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
136Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Crested Flycatcher Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Crested Flycatcher in Pennsylvania. See the full index history below.

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Pennsylvania is projected to rise about 34% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.88–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+34%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.88–3.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Pennsylvania is projected to rise about 34% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.88–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.10.963.2
20262.10.943.2
20272.00.923.2
20282.00.903.1
20292.00.883.1

Great Crested Flycatcher Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ryde1220051968
Greentown920241970
Portersville919881974
Canadensis720241969
Naginey720241971
Collegeville720231971
Big Flat719811966
Harmonsburg620231966
Peters Mt619941972
Geeseytown520241987
Needmore519911966
Doylesburg520232009
Brick Tavern520231992
Stoneybreak520241992
Marsh Hill420231983
Munson420241979
St College420221969
Peru Mills420241966
Pine Gr Mill420231967
Landisburg420241978
Drehersville 2420242000
Russell City320231968
Ridgway320121988
English Ctr319891966
Millville320241969

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.