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Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in North Dakota has surged: up 202% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+202%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Crested Flycatcher Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Crested Flycatcher has surged in North Dakota: up 202% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in North Dakota is projected to rise about 29% by 2029 — from 0.63 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.81 (95% range 0.39–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+29%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.81Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.39–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in North Dakota is projected to rise about 29% by 2029 — from 0.63 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.81 (95% range 0.39–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.780.351.2
20260.790.361.2
20270.800.371.2
20280.810.381.2
20290.810.391.2

Great Crested Flycatcher Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Abercrombie720121967
Emerado620241973
Cooperstown620241970
Turtle Mtns420241980
Walcott320231967
Nash320151980
Kempton220161968
Forman120241968
Carson119911991
Bowesmont120121971
Lakota120031994
Rolla119971997
Bowesmont 2120162015
Dickinson119751975
Dunn Center120102010
Denbigh120172010
Abercrombie 2120172013

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.