BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in Nebraska has surged: up 745% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+745%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Crested Flycatcher Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Crested Flycatcher has surged in Nebraska: up 745% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Nebraska is projected to fall about 34% by 2029 — from 2.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 1.2–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-34%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–2.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Nebraska is projected to fall about 34% by 2029 — from 2.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 1.2–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.81.12.5
20261.81.12.5
20271.81.12.5
20281.91.12.6
20291.91.22.6

Great Crested Flycatcher Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Red Cloud2720242018
Eagle Creek1920241989
Midway1620231967
Brady1520241995
Pine Ridge920241999
Liberty 3920242009
Nenzel820242018
Crookston520242019
Lyons520242022
Belvidere420241987
Stratton420241975
Almeria420212021
Boelus420222022
Murdock420242021
Johnson320241967
Gretna320182014
Tilden320242019
Humboldt320242018
Julian220241974
Liberty220031967
Holbrook220242014
Irvington220241970
Swan Lake220231992
Johnstown220241970
Table220242011

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.