BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in Nebraska has surged: up 747% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+747%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
53Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Crested Flycatcher Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Crested Flycatcher has surged in Nebraska: up 747% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Nebraska is projected to fall about 21% by 2030 — from 2.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 1.3–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.1%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-21%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–2.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Nebraska is projected to fall about 21% by 2030 — from 2.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 1.3–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.1%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.81.12.6
20271.91.22.6
20281.91.22.6
20291.91.22.7
20302.01.32.7

Great Crested Flycatcher Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Red Cloud2720242018
Humboldt2020252018
Midway1920251967
Brady1720251995
Eagle Creek1220251989
Pine Ridge1120251999
Murdock1020252021
Sparta720251967
Liberty 3620252009
Julian520251974
Lyons520242022
Belvidere420241987
Almeria420212021
Nenzel420252018
Boelus420222022
Johnson320251967
Sumner320251978
Gretna320182014
Petersburg320252005
Crookston320252019
Hampton320252022
Gretna 2320252025
Wheeler Co320252021
Liberty220031967
Kearney220251970

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.