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Species · Kansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Kansas

All statesAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in Kansas has surged: up 208% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+208%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
60Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Crested Flycatcher Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Crested Flycatcher has surged in Kansas: up 208% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Kansas is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 8.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.8 (95% range 5.2–8.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.2–8.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Kansas is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 8.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.8 (95% range 5.2–8.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.54.98.2
20266.65.08.3
20276.75.08.3
20286.85.18.4
20296.85.28.5

Great Crested Flycatcher Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kanopolis3520241967
Covert2920241968
Reece2020242000
Dover1720221967
Grantville1720221968
Wreford1620241967
Wellington1520241968
Seneca1320221967
Ellinor1220241967
Le Loup1220212000
Lincolnville1220242002
Ashland1120211972
Rock Creek1020211973
Chapman919811968
Berwet920242000
Severance920242000
Humboldt820221968
Pittsburg820212001
Morehead820242000
Olathe720211967
Buckeye720231967
Olsburg720242000
Dalton620241968
Minneapolis620191967
Coats520241971

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.