BirdAnalyst
Species · South Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in South Carolina

All statesAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in South Carolina has held roughly steady: up 4% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+4%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Crested Flycatcher Trends in South CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Crested Flycatcher in South Carolina. See the full index history below.

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Forecast in South Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in South Carolina is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 8.4–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+20%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.4–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in South Carolina is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 8.4–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025128.217
2026138.217
2027138.317
2028138.317
2029138.417

Great Crested Flycatcher Survey Routes in South Carolina

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in South Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sandhills3720241994
Kiawah Island3020241998
New Holland2420241967
Barton Creek2220221967
Walterboro1920171970
Pinewood1820191998
Green Sea1620242010
Dale1520241998
Kingstree1420102010
Whitmire1220242010
Mount Pisgah1220211998
Carvers Bay1220121998
Wagener1120241966
Salem Xrd1120191982
Ridgeway1120212010
Holly Hill1020241972
Dillon1020211970
New Ellenton1020242010
Chesnee1020151992
Jamestown920191967
Rome920241967
Foreston920211966
Plum Branch920241977
Greenwood920191998
Cauthens Xrd820211982

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.