BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in South Dakota has surged: up 394% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+394%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
32YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Crested Flycatcher Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Crested Flycatcher has surged in South Dakota: up 394% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in South Dakota is projected to fall about 66% by 2029 — from 0.27 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-66%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.09Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±65.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in South Dakota is projected to fall about 66% by 2029 — from 0.27 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.090.000.24
20260.090.000.24
20270.090.000.24
20280.090.000.24
20290.090.000.24

Great Crested Flycatcher Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wilmot520241967
Winner220212007
Lane219861986
Cedar Pass119871979
Lennox120242014
Tripp120142010
Geddes120221971
Rosebud120101968
Volga120032003
Ardmore119891989
Badlands120231991
Lacreek119911991
Veblen120222011
Britton120022002
Conde119831983
Promise119961973

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.