BirdAnalyst
Species · New Jersey · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in New Jersey

All statesAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in New Jersey has edged up: up 18% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+18%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
42Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Crested Flycatcher Trends in New JerseyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Crested Flycatcher in New Jersey. See the full index history below.

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Forecast in New Jersey

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in New Jersey is projected to fall about 39% by 2030 — from 8.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.1 (95% range 2.3–8.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-39%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.3–8.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in New Jersey is projected to fall about 39% by 2030 — from 8.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.1 (95% range 2.3–8.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.02.27.9
20275.12.27.9
20285.12.28.0
20295.12.28.0
20305.12.38.0

Great Crested Flycatcher Survey Routes in New Jersey

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in New Jersey.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Spraguetown 34020252021
Pomona2620251978
Winslow1220251989
Bennett Mill 21220252016
Cape May Ch1120131992
Ancora1019771966
Dover1020231978
Friendship1020251977
Del Haven1019911991
Pottersville920231977
Estell Manor920252021
Toms River820241966
Ramseysburg820251995
Woodbury Hgt720251967
Hope719941971
High Point720251977
Kemah Lake620241966
Pedricktown 2620252013
Greenwich520251966
Spraguetown 2520122000
Six Points420251978
Bennett Mill420001966
Villas419811979
Holmansville320091970
Croton 2320232010

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.