BirdAnalyst
Species · New Jersey · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in New Jersey

All statesAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in New Jersey has held roughly steady: up 1% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+1%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
42Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Crested Flycatcher Trends in New JerseyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Crested Flycatcher in New Jersey. See the full index history below.

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Forecast in New Jersey

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in New Jersey is projected to fall about 33% by 2029 — from 7.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.8 (95% range 2.1–7.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-33%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.1–7.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in New Jersey is projected to fall about 33% by 2029 — from 7.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.8 (95% range 2.1–7.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.82.07.5
20264.82.07.5
20274.82.07.5
20284.82.17.6
20294.82.17.6

Great Crested Flycatcher Survey Routes in New Jersey

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in New Jersey.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Spraguetown 33820242021
Pomona2420241978
Friendship1220241977
Cape May Ch1120131992
Ancora1019771966
Dover1020231978
Gillette1020241988
Estell Manor1020222021
Del Haven1019911991
Pottersville920231977
Toms River820241966
Hope719941971
High Point720241977
Winslow720241989
Greenwich620241966
Sandbrook620241970
Kemah Lake620241966
Pedricktown 2620242013
Six Points520241978
Spraguetown 2520122000
Bennett Mill 2520242016
Woodbury Hgt420241967
Bennett Mill420001966
Bloomsbury420241969
Villas419811979

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.