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Species · Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Virginia

All statesAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in Virginia has edged down: down 19% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-19%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Crested Flycatcher Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Crested Flycatcher in Virginia. See the full index history below.

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.9 (95% range 2.8–4.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.8–4.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.9 (95% range 2.8–4.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.92.85.0
20273.92.85.0
20283.92.85.0
20293.92.84.9
20303.92.84.9

Great Crested Flycatcher Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dismal Swamp2120161992
Pungo1920251975
Brodnax1620251973
Cornland1320141975
Walkers1320231992
David1120131968
Lake Anna1120252021
Stanley1020251966
Brandy Station1020252018
Truhart920241996
Surry820251977
Branchville820241966
W Augusta720251967
Carters Brdg 2720252015
Brandon720251992
Hall620251967
White Stone620251966
Newsoms620241968
Taylorstown 2620252012
Gr North Mtn620251993
Colonial Pky619981992
Chincoteag W620241992
Pine Mtn.620241996
Natural Brid520251974
Mannboro520251967

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.