BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Virginia

All statesAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in Virginia has edged down: down 21% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-21%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Crested Flycatcher Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Crested Flycatcher in Virginia. See the full index history below.

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.9 (95% range 2.7–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.7–5.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.9 (95% range 2.7–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.92.85.0
20263.92.85.0
20273.92.85.0
20283.92.85.0
20293.92.75.0

Great Crested Flycatcher Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dismal Swamp2120161992
Pungo2020241975
Cornland1320141975
Walkers1320231992
David1120131968
New Market1020241992
Hall920231967
Brodnax920241973
Truhart920241996
Brandon920241992
Stanley820241966
Port Royal820191977
Surry820241977
Branchville820241966
W Augusta720241967
Brandy Station720242018
Star Tannery620241977
White Stone620241966
Newsoms620241968
Rural Retrt620241982
Colonial Pky619981992
Chincoteag W620241992
Front Royal620241993
Pine Mtn.620241996
Tryme520241976

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.