BirdAnalyst
Species · Tennessee · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in Tennessee has risen sharply: up 62% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+62%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Crested Flycatcher Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Crested Flycatcher has risen sharply in Tennessee: up 62% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Tennessee is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 4.2 (95% range 3.4–4.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-5%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.4–4.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Tennessee is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 4.2 (95% range 3.4–4.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.03.34.8
20274.13.44.8
20284.13.44.8
20294.13.44.9
20304.23.44.9

Great Crested Flycatcher Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Campbellsville1820171966
Trace Collinwood1520182015
Mansfield1220251966
Big Sandy1020251966
Collinwood1020251966
Bradyville1020211969
Pond Creek920251966
Peytonsville920251967
Climer820041967
Trace Lewis720172013
Indian Mound 2720232004
Signal Mtn620251979
Pawpaw620121967
Lovell620191966
Tiptonville520251966
Moscow520251966
Walland519891966
Wrigley420221966
Union Hill420241967
Jasper420251967
Corryton Rd420191966
Brownsville320251966
Tibbs320251966
Whiteville320251966
Sweetlips320231966

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.