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Species · Tennessee · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in Tennessee has increased: up 48% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+48%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Crested Flycatcher Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Crested Flycatcher in Tennessee. See the full index history below.

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Tennessee is projected to rise about 22% by 2029 — from 3.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.1 (95% range 3.4–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+22%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.4–4.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Tennessee is projected to rise about 22% by 2029 — from 3.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.1 (95% range 3.4–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.03.34.7
20264.03.34.7
20274.03.34.8
20284.13.34.8
20294.13.44.8

Great Crested Flycatcher Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Campbellsville1820171966
Trace Collinwood1520182015
Mansfield1220241966
Humboldt1120241966
Bradyville1020211969
Collinwood820241966
Climer820041967
Trace Lewis720172013
Indian Mound 2720232004
Pawpaw620121967
Big Sandy620241966
Lovell620191966
Brownsville520241966
Walland519891966
Moscow420241966
Wrigley420221966
Union Hill420241967
Corryton Rd420191966
Sweetlips320231966
Silerton320241973
Pond Creek320241966
Belotes Bend320181967
Silver Pt320241967
Jasper320241967
Jones Gap320191982

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.