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Species · Mississippi · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Mississippi

All statesAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in Mississippi has surged: up 137% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+137%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
74Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Crested Flycatcher Trends in MississippiNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Crested Flycatcher has surged in Mississippi: up 137% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Forecast in Mississippi

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Mississippi is projected to rise about 51% by 2029 — from 5.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.6 (95% range 5.0–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+51%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.0–1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Mississippi is projected to rise about 51% by 2029 — from 5.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.6 (95% range 5.0–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.34.89.9
20267.44.89.9
20277.54.910
20287.55.010
20297.65.010

Great Crested Flycatcher Survey Routes in Mississippi

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in Mississippi.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Trace South2320192007
Trace Lorman2220192016
Trace Lee2120182013
Vicksburg Np1920212016
Commerce1819931966
Amite River1720132008
Leaf River1420132008
Delta N.F.1420211996
Corinth1320241972
Trace Chickasaw1320242012
Beverly1220111966
Lake1220241966
Neely1220121974
Oak Ridge Vick1220212015
Star1220242016
Mt Carmel1120161974
Necaise1120221982
Monticello1020172007
Latimer 21020232021
Trace Hinds1020222014
Latimer1020191988
Dundee920221970
Lucien920081967
Olive Branch920011968
Scooba919821968

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.