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Species · Massachusetts · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Massachusetts

All statesAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in Massachusetts has held roughly steady: down 5% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-5%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Crested Flycatcher Trends in MassachusettsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Crested Flycatcher in Massachusetts. See the full index history below.

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Forecast in Massachusetts

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Massachusetts is projected to rise about 27% by 2029 — from 2.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.5 (95% range 2.2–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+27%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.2–4.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Massachusetts is projected to rise about 27% by 2029 — from 2.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.5 (95% range 2.2–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.42.24.6
20263.42.24.6
20273.42.24.7
20283.42.24.7
20293.52.24.7

Great Crested Flycatcher Survey Routes in Massachusetts

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in Massachusetts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Brockton1120191967
Marion1020241969
Prattville720191966
E Dennis620211967
Wellfleet620071966
Belchertown620241967
Chilmark519831969
Gay Head520241996
Cape Cod Ns420071989
Wellfleet 2420242016
Cummington 2420232016
Maynard320221967
Littleton320241967
Monterey320242019
Ware River320221993
N. Andover320241995
Warren 2320242011
Newburyport220221967
Princeton219761969
N Orange220241968
Pittsfield220161968
N Oxford120241968
Mansfield120241968
E Pepperell119941966
Warren120091968

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.