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Species · Massachusetts · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Massachusetts

All statesAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in Massachusetts has held roughly steady: up 0% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+0%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Crested Flycatcher Trends in MassachusettsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Crested Flycatcher in Massachusetts. See the full index history below.

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Forecast in Massachusetts

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Massachusetts is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.5 (95% range 2.3–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-5%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.3–4.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Massachusetts is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.5 (95% range 2.3–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.42.24.6
20273.42.24.7
20283.52.24.7
20293.52.34.7
20303.52.34.7

Great Crested Flycatcher Survey Routes in Massachusetts

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in Massachusetts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Marion1320251969
Brockton1120191967
Gay Head920251996
Prattville720191966
E Dennis620211967
Wellfleet620071966
Maynard620251967
Wellfleet 2620252016
Chilmark519831969
Belchertown420251967
Monterey420252019
Cape Cod Ns420071989
N. Andover420251995
Littleton320251967
N Oxford320251968
Ware River320221993
Newburyport220221967
Princeton219761969
N Orange220251968
Chesterfield220251973
Pittsfield220161968
Mansfield120241968
E Pepperell119941966
Warren120091968
S Barre120251968

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.