BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Vermont

All statesAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in Vermont has declined: down 37% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-37%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Crested Flycatcher Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Crested Flycatcher in Vermont. See the full index history below.

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Vermont is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.44–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.44–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Vermont is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.44–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.492.0
20261.20.481.9
20271.20.471.9
20281.20.451.9
20291.20.441.9

Great Crested Flycatcher Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Fletcher720241970
Post Mills420241966
Hinesburg419941966
S Reading320241966
W Rutland320241966
East Haven220241966
Northfld Fls220211986
Middlesex220231969
Hardwick220241966
Grand Isle220231967
Stowe220241988
Bristol220171995
Marlboro120221968
North Pownal120231966
Stratton119971966
Landgrove120221966
Gaysville120131966
Shaftsbury120241967
S Wallingfrd120221966
St Johnsbury120241970
East Calais120151966
Newbury120021987
Greensboro120241968
Waterville119801967
Colchester120231986

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.