BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Vermont

All statesAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in Vermont has declined: down 41% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-41%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Crested Flycatcher Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Crested Flycatcher in Vermont. See the full index history below.

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Vermont is projected to rise about 36% by 2030 — from 0.83 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.40–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+36%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.40–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Vermont is projected to rise about 36% by 2030 — from 0.83 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.40–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.20.451.9
20271.20.441.9
20281.20.421.9
20291.10.411.9
20301.10.401.9

Great Crested Flycatcher Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hinesburg419941966
S Reading320241966
W Rutland320241966
Fletcher320251970
North Pownal220251966
East Haven220241966
Northfld Fls220211986
Hardwick220241966
Greensboro220251968
Grand Isle220251967
Stowe220241988
Marlboro120221968
Stratton119971966
Landgrove120221966
Gaysville120251966
Post Mills120251966
Shaftsbury120241967
S Wallingfrd120221966
St Johnsbury120251970
Middlesex120251969
East Calais120251966
Newbury120021987
Waterville119801967
Colchester120231986
Newbury 2120222008

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.