BirdAnalyst
Species · New Hampshire · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in New Hampshire

All statesAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in New Hampshire has held roughly steady: up 4% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+4%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Crested Flycatcher Trends in New HampshireNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Crested Flycatcher in New Hampshire. See the full index history below.

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Forecast in New Hampshire

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in New Hampshire is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.77–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.77–3.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in New Hampshire is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.77–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.90.793.0
20261.90.783.0
20271.90.783.0
20281.90.773.0
20291.90.773.0

Great Crested Flycatcher Survey Routes in New Hampshire

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in New Hampshire.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Strafford1020241966
East Kingston620241999
Peterborough520241966
Dover520241966
Concord420241966
Canterbury420241967
Mt Chocorua320241966
Crawford Not319751966
Jefferson Hl320241966
Brentwood219981966
Fitzwilliam220231969
Epsom220231967
Wilmot220241966
Franconia220021966
Clarksville220041973
Hopkinton120241966
Gilmantn I W120241970
Walpole120241970
Marlow120241966
Lempster120191966
Milan120241966
Stratford120091966
Dixvil Notch120091966
Glen120231975
Jeffers Ntch120242006

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.