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Species · Kentucky · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in Kentucky has declined: down 28% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-28%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
63Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Crested Flycatcher Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Crested Flycatcher in Kentucky. See the full index history below.

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Kentucky is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.2 (95% range 1.8–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.8–4.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Kentucky is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.2 (95% range 1.8–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.21.84.6
20263.21.84.6
20273.21.84.6
20283.21.84.6
20293.21.84.6

Great Crested Flycatcher Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bays Fork2320191999
Mammoth Cave1120141995
Riverqueen1020242008
Morganfield1020242022
Cumberlnd Gp820181980
Bardwell 2820242006
Levee 2720192007
Million 2720242006
Eastview620241968
Shelbyville619771966
Pleasurevill620241983
Sulphur Lick520241967
Demunbruns520191966
Joy520231966
Staffordsvil519971996
Shiloh420231967
Hegira420241988
Bardwell420031967
Goshen419991966
Buena Vista420171966
Mammoth Cave North420132009
Canton320241967
Johnsonville320211966
Gatewood320191966
Porter320241966

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.