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Species · Arkansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in Arkansas has held roughly steady: down 6% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-6%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
60Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Crested Flycatcher Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Crested Flycatcher in Arkansas. See the full index history below.

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Arkansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 4.6 (95% range 3.1–6.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-5%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.1–6.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Arkansas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 4.6 (95% range 3.1–6.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.63.16.0
20274.63.16.0
20284.63.16.0
20294.63.16.1
20304.63.16.1

Great Crested Flycatcher Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Russell1720212010
Havana1720212010
Zion1320251967
Poyen 21320252008
Locust Bayou1220231967
Hope1120251967
South Bend1120251967
Old Milo1020251967
Blakely1019991968
Saffell1020191977
England820252010
Harrisburg720121967
Coal Hill720231967
Maynard720251969
Farwell720182010
Lockesburg720192010
Crowley'S Ridge720252011
Massard620221967
Eudora520251968
Poyen520071967
Compton520221967
Yellville520252010
Rudy520252011
Hatfield 2520252017
Nance520251993

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.