BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in North Carolina has edged up: up 19% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+19%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
109Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Crested Flycatcher Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Crested Flycatcher in North Carolina. See the full index history below.

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in North Carolina is projected to rise about 13% by 2030 — from 9.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 7.9–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+13%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.9–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in North Carolina is projected to rise about 13% by 2030 — from 9.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 7.9–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026107.613
2027107.713
2028107.713
2029117.813
2030117.913

Great Crested Flycatcher Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Green Swamp4520062002
Shallotte4219911966
California4020131972
Myrtle Grove3820251966
Supply3820251992
Milltail Cr3620251992
Maple Hill3620231995
Montague3420251990
Reelsboro3120191997
Cypress Lakes2820252004
Sheep Ridge2620251994
Broad Creek2620251993
Belgrade2220192002
Spring Hope2220252002
Mashoes2119821971
Newport2120231995
Raeford2120251990
Dismal Swamp2020241993
Jamesville1920251983
Hamlet1920251995
Dortches1920251990
Rheasville1920172005
Chowan River1920062002
Lake Surf1820251998
Jordan1720251966

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.