BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in New York

All statesAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in New York has held roughly steady: down 6% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-6%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
129Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Crested Flycatcher Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Crested Flycatcher in New York. See the full index history below.

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in New York is projected to fall about 29% by 2029 — from 2.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 1.2–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-29%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–2.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in New York is projected to fall about 29% by 2029 — from 2.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 1.2–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.11.33.0
20262.11.23.0
20272.11.23.0
20282.11.22.9
20292.11.22.9

Great Crested Flycatcher Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Oxford1019761967
Watertown920111967
Naples920241966
N Victory919721967
Mt Morris720241967
Castile720241968
Wanakena720241980
Purdy720221980
Oriskany Fls620241967
Cayuga620241969
Branchport620241968
Nashville620181967
N Wilmurt619981967
Warwick 2620131975
Austerlitz520241966
Ballston Lk519951967
Orleans520241967
Churchville520241968
Penfield520241968
N Victory 2520191978
Cicero Ctr520241966
Salem520241967
Degrasse520241980
Orange Lake519921987
Rhinebeck420241966

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.