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Species · Louisiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Louisiana

All statesAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in Louisiana has increased: up 40% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+40%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
92Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Crested Flycatcher Trends in LouisianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Crested Flycatcher in Louisiana. See the full index history below.

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Forecast in Louisiana

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Louisiana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.3 (95% range 2.7–5.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.7–5.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Louisiana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.3 (95% range 2.7–5.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.22.65.8
20264.22.65.8
20274.22.75.8
20284.32.75.8
20294.32.75.9

Great Crested Flycatcher Survey Routes in Louisiana

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in Louisiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kraemer1920241997
Lacombe1519831967
Plettenberg1320221968
Mount Union1220241998
Franklinton1220242008
Junior1119911987
Norwood1120242004
Frogmore1120241998
Derry1019891969
Fort Polk1019751967
De Quincy1020211998
Linville1020241998
Ivan920131998
Pearl River920241989
Pine Prairie919971995
Atchafalaya920241989
Mayflower820241968
Trout820231988
Many819921989
Gibson820192015
Slidell819881984
Oakdale819941991
Cheniere820241984
Enterprise820232008
Chatham719751967

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.