BirdAnalyst
Species · Louisiana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Louisiana

All statesAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in Louisiana has risen sharply: up 54% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+54%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
92Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Crested Flycatcher Trends in LouisianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Crested Flycatcher has risen sharply in Louisiana: up 54% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Forecast in Louisiana

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Louisiana is projected to fall about 28% by 2030 — from 6.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.5 (95% range 2.8–6.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-28%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.8–6.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Louisiana is projected to fall about 28% by 2030 — from 6.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.5 (95% range 2.8–6.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.42.76.0
20274.42.76.0
20284.42.86.1
20294.42.86.1
20304.52.86.1

Great Crested Flycatcher Survey Routes in Louisiana

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in Louisiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pearl River1620251989
Tensas Nwr1620251987
Lacombe1519831967
Mount Union1420251998
Plettenberg1320221968
Transylvania1320252008
Bickham1220251984
Kraemer1220251997
Junior1119911987
Mayflower1020251968
Derry1019891969
Fort Polk1019751967
De Quincy1020211998
Flat Creek1020251998
Baton Rouge1020251995
Norwood920252004
Frogmore920251998
Ivan920131998
Pine Prairie919971995
Ramah820251988
Many819921989
Gibson820192015
Womack820251999
Slidell819881984
Oakdale819941991

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.