BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Michigan

All statesAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in Michigan has edged down: down 11% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-11%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
108Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Crested Flycatcher Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Crested Flycatcher in Michigan. See the full index history below.

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Michigan is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 3.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 1.4–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+13%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.4–5.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Michigan is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 3.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 1.4–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.61.65.6
20263.51.55.5
20273.51.55.5
20283.51.55.5
20293.41.45.4

Great Crested Flycatcher Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pleasant Val1719971967
Remus1120241974
Beaver Lake1120111967
Hubbard Lake1119961973
Big Rapids1019901967
No Bradley1020241970
Herron1020162011
Chippewa Lk.1020241992
Walloon Lake920041977
Cathro920161967
New Buffalo920141992
Barry S.G.A. 2920192013
Coopersville820241986
Deckerville820241978
Hungerford820241991
Bear Lake720241967
Brush Creek720161974
Mayfield720222000
Almena720151993
Ontonagon620191970
Skeels620151966
Adrian620171966
Allegan Wma620191993
Creighton520231978
Big Blue Lk520241979

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.