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Species · Michigan · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Michigan

All statesAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in Michigan has held roughly steady: down 5% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-5%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
108Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Crested Flycatcher Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Crested Flycatcher in Michigan. See the full index history below.

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Michigan is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 4.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 1.5–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.5–5.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Michigan is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 4.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 1.5–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.61.65.6
20273.51.55.5
20283.51.55.5
20293.51.55.5
20303.41.55.4

Great Crested Flycatcher Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Chippewa Lk.1820251992
Pleasant Val1719971967
No Bradley1420251970
Lawrence1120251969
Beaver Lake1120111967
Hubbard Lake1119961973
Hungerford1120251991
Big Rapids1019901967
Cohoctah1020252021
Herron1020162011
Walloon Lake920041977
Cathro920161967
New Buffalo920141992
Barry S.G.A. 2920192013
Deckerville820241978
Bear Lake720251967
Scottville720251968
Remus720251974
Brush Creek720161974
Ola720251974
Harrietta720251990
Almena720151993
Ontonagon620191970
Nashville620251968
Galesburg620251966

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.