BirdAnalyst
Species · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Florida

All statesAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in Florida has risen sharply: up 58% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+58%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
123Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Crested Flycatcher Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Crested Flycatcher has risen sharply in Florida: up 58% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 19 (95% range 15–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
15–2495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 19 (95% range 15–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025191523
2026191523
2027191523
2028191524
2029191524

Great Crested Flycatcher Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lovedale9020111987
Pinetta5320241987
Dowling Park5120231987
Citrus4820242010
Alligator Pt4320241987
Callahan4020241987
Mt. Olive4020242002
Hilliard3820241966
Cross City3720231988
Ocala3520241987
Olustee3520221992
Micanopy3419911966
Hildreth3320091987
Steinhatchee3120231966
Hildreth 23120242010
Broad Branch3020241967
Belmont3020241966
Pinecrest3020241966
New Hope3020112009
Miller Xrds2920191987
Blountstown2720241966
Sanderson2720211966
Mabel2620111966
Hixtown Swmp2620241987
Osceola2620241991

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.