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Species · Florida · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Florida

All statesAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in Florida has risen sharply: up 66% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+66%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
123Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Crested Flycatcher Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Crested Flycatcher has risen sharply in Florida: up 66% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 19 (95% range 15–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+10%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
15–2495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Florida is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 19 (95% range 15–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026191523
2027191523
2028191523
2029191524
2030191524

Great Crested Flycatcher Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lovedale9020111987
Olustee7220251992
Citrus5620252010
Dowling Park4820251987
Callahan4020241987
Belmont3820251966
Cross City3720231988
Hilliard3620251966
Pinetta3620251987
Pinecrest3520251966
Miccosukee3420251966
Micanopy3419911966
Hildreth3320091987
New Hope3020112009
Miller Xrds2920191987
Ocala2820251987
Sanderson2720211966
Goethe2720252010
Mabel2620111966
Indiantown 22620252018
St Vincent I2620251995
Ft Mccoy2420251987
Mt. Olive2420252002
Seminole Hills 22420222002
Telogia2219851968

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.