BirdAnalyst
Species · Maine · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Maine

All statesAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in Maine has surged: up 136% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+136%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
68Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Crested Flycatcher Trends in MaineNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Crested Flycatcher has surged in Maine: up 136% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Forecast in Maine

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Maine is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.7 (95% range 0.49–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+10%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.49–3.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Maine is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.7 (95% range 0.49–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.70.473.0
20261.70.483.0
20271.70.483.0
20281.70.483.0
20291.70.493.0

Great Crested Flycatcher Survey Routes in Maine

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in Maine.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Manchester619951971
Jefferson620081991
Church Hill620171991
Grnd Lk Strm519921990
Reeds420241990
Freedom420221974
Harmony420241967
Brownfield 2420242012
Turner320101972
Greenwood320241987
Brooks320191977
Carrying Pl320241980
Carrabassett319931986
Cambridge320131967
Brownfield320092009
Westbrook220171977
Otisfield Gr220151971
Bowdoin Ctr220211971
East Troy220191981
Warren219901973
Hermon220191966
Castine220051976
Moose River220051983
Charleston220191977
Winn220221978

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.