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Species · Maryland · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Maryland

All statesAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in Maryland has surged: up 101% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+101%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Crested Flycatcher Trends in MarylandNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Crested Flycatcher has surged in Maryland: up 101% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Forecast in Maryland

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Maryland is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 8.7 (95% range 6.6–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+3%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.6–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Maryland is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 8.7 (95% range 6.6–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20258.36.310
20268.46.410
20278.56.411
20288.66.511
20298.76.611

Great Crested Flycatcher Survey Routes in Maryland

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in Maryland.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Honga5120241966
Madison4520241966
Cokesbury2420241966
Williamsport1820241966
Furnace Town1520242015
Wheaton1420241990
Emmitsburg1320241966
Tall Timbers1320141966
Easton1220211966
Fruitland1219981966
Walnut1220241999
Harmony1120171966
Matthews1020241966
Berlin1020241980
Indiantown920141977
Island Creek920241991
Piney Neck820241966
Vienna820241966
Newark820241966
Snow Hill819761966
St. George'S Island820172015
Ijamsville820241986
Madonna820222009
Davidsnville820241982
Oldtown720241970

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.