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Species · Maryland · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Maryland

All statesAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in Maryland has surged: up 116% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+116%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Crested Flycatcher Trends in MarylandNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Crested Flycatcher has surged in Maryland: up 116% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Forecast in Maryland

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Maryland is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.9 (95% range 6.8–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.8–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Maryland is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.9 (95% range 6.8–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20268.66.511
20278.76.511
20288.76.611
20298.86.711
20308.96.811

Great Crested Flycatcher Survey Routes in Maryland

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in Maryland.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Honga4020251966
Emmitsburg3720251966
Cokesbury3420251966
Madison2820251966
Wheaton2620251990
Ijamsville1820251986
Easton1720251966
Olney1420251966
Island Creek1420251991
Williamsport1320251966
Tall Timbers1320141966
Hughesville1320251970
Millington1220251966
Piney Neck1220251966
Fruitland1219981966
Furnace Town1220252015
Walnut1220241999
Harmony1120171966
Pleasant Val1020251966
Matthews1020251966
Indiantown920141977
Nottingham920252005
Pomonkey820251966
Vienna820251966
Snow Hill819761966

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.