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Species · Ohio · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Ohio

All statesAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in Ohio has declined: down 36% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-36%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Crested Flycatcher Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Crested Flycatcher in Ohio. See the full index history below.

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Ohio is projected to rise about 16% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.97–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+16%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.97–2.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Ohio is projected to rise about 16% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.97–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.70.992.5
20271.70.982.5
20281.70.982.5
20291.70.982.4
20301.70.972.4

Great Crested Flycatcher Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ash Ridge1020211993
West Elkton820121992
Bloomville720251992
Wilmington619961966
Rome520251966
Middlefield420171967
New Dover420161966
Newcomerstwn419951966
Cuba420241993
Tecumseh419821966
Pomeroy420211966
Stonecreek420252006
Birmingham420231988
Wayland320091992
Garrettsvile319911966
Lenox320251966
Fulton320251966
Baxter Ridge320251998
Dresden320241966
Smithfield320251969
New Marshfld320251966
Hiram320181992
W Carrollton320151989
Lockport220221966
Napoleon220251969

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.