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Species · Ohio · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Ohio

All statesAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in Ohio has declined: down 29% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-29%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Crested Flycatcher Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Crested Flycatcher in Ohio. See the full index history below.

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Ohio is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.99–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.99–2.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Ohio is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.99–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.71.02.5
20261.71.02.5
20271.71.002.5
20281.71.002.5
20291.70.992.5

Great Crested Flycatcher Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ash Ridge1020211993
West Elkton820121992
Fulton720241966
Wilmington619961966
New Marshfld620241966
Baxter Ridge520231998
Rome520241966
Marion 2520242024
Napoleon420231969
Middlefield420171967
New Dover420161966
Newcomerstwn419951966
Cuba420241993
Tecumseh419821966
Pomeroy420211966
Birmingham420231988
Bloomville320241992
Wayland320091992
Garrettsvile319911966
Lenox320241966
Dresden320241966
Vickery320241996
Hiram320181992
W Carrollton320151989
Zaleski S.F.320221992

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.