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Species · Wisconsin · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Wisconsin

All statesAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in Wisconsin has declined: down 25% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-25%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
98Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Crested Flycatcher Trends in WisconsinNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Crested Flycatcher in Wisconsin. See the full index history below.

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Forecast in Wisconsin

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Wisconsin is projected to fall about 29% by 2030 — from 3.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 1.1–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-29%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–4.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Wisconsin is projected to fall about 29% by 2030 — from 3.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 1.1–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.91.34.5
20272.91.34.5
20282.81.24.4
20292.71.14.4
20302.71.14.3

Great Crested Flycatcher Survey Routes in Wisconsin

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in Wisconsin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bashaw2020251998
Washington I1720251967
Holway1519891967
Union Twp1320251966
Eden1320251966
Fall River1120251966
River Falls1120251998
Mukwonago 2920252006
Dresser820251966
Pardeeville820251967
Brownsville820251966
Esdaile720251966
Omro 2720252002
Gresham720251998
Grimms720211998
Cumberland620251966
Weyerhauser620251967
Clintonville620251968
Newburg Crns620231968
Beaver Dam620231966
Pt Washingtn620241966
Paris620251966
Pigeon Creek620251999
Loraine520251966
Exeland520241968

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.