BirdAnalyst
Species · Wisconsin · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Wisconsin

All statesAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in Wisconsin has declined: down 30% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-30%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
98Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Crested Flycatcher Trends in WisconsinNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Crested Flycatcher in Wisconsin. See the full index history below.

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Forecast in Wisconsin

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Wisconsin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.7 (95% range 1.1–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-8%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–4.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±5.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Wisconsin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.7 (95% range 1.1–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.91.34.5
20262.91.34.5
20272.81.24.4
20282.71.14.4
20292.71.14.3

Great Crested Flycatcher Survey Routes in Wisconsin

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in Wisconsin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Washington I1720241967
Holway1519891967
Eden1220241966
Pardeeville1020241967
Dresser920241966
Mukwonago 2820242006
Cumberland720241966
Amberg720241980
Clintonville720241968
Hebron720241967
Gresham720241998
Grimms720211998
Gilman620241966
Manawa620241966
Newburg Crns620231968
Brownsville620221966
Beaver Dam620231966
Pt Washingtn620241966
Paris620241966
Briggsville620241999
Union Twp520241966
Loraine520211966
Exeland520241968
Esdaile520241966
Omro520011966

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginia

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.