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Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in Oklahoma has edged down: down 17% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-17%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Crested Flycatcher Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Crested Flycatcher in Oklahoma. See the full index history below.

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 18% by 2029 — from 4.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.0 (95% range 3.0–6.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.0–6.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 18% by 2029 — from 4.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.0 (95% range 3.0–6.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.03.17.0
20265.03.06.9
20275.03.06.9
20285.03.06.9
20295.03.06.9

Great Crested Flycatcher Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wichita Mtns2119941994
Pushmataha2120231994
Barnsdall1819761967
Phroso1520241991
Heyburn1520241992
Ft Sill West1419941994
Holdenville1320241967
Wichita Mtns East1220222004
Blanco1120161967
Wichita Mts West1120222004
Mill Creek1020181967
Hollis920241993
Sickles920211993
Indianola820241967
Eagle City820101967
Goodwater820211992
Matoy820001992
Sandbluff719951992
Pocola720161992
Wainwright720131992
Cashion720241992
Arapaho720081992
Colcord720221992
Keetonville720221992
Skiatook720191982

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiopennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.