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Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in Oklahoma has edged down: down 15% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-15%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Crested Flycatcher Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Crested Flycatcher in Oklahoma. See the full index history below.

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 11% by 2030 — from 5.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.0 (95% range 3.1–6.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-11%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.1–6.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 11% by 2030 — from 5.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.0 (95% range 3.1–6.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.03.17.0
20275.03.17.0
20285.03.17.0
20295.03.17.0
20305.03.16.9

Great Crested Flycatcher Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wichita Mtns2119941994
Pushmataha2120231994
Holdenville1820251967
Barnsdall1819761967
Phillips1420251968
Woodward1420251993
Ft Sill West1419941994
Grimes1320251967
Blanco1120161967
Heyburn1120251992
Phroso1020251991
Sickles920211993
Ardmore820251967
Eagle City820101967
Goodwater820211992
Sandbluff820251992
Wichita Mts West820252004
Matoy720251992
Pocola720161992
Wainwright720131992
Cashion720241992
Arapaho720081992
Colcord720221992
Keetonville720221992
Skiatook720191982

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiopennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.