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Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Texas

All statesAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in Texas has declined: down 35% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-35%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
145Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Crested Flycatcher Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Crested Flycatcher in Texas. See the full index history below.

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Texas is projected to fall about 18% by 2030 — from 0.92 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.76 (95% range 0.15–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.76Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.15–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Texas is projected to fall about 18% by 2030 — from 0.92 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.76 (95% range 0.15–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.820.221.4
20270.800.201.4
20280.790.191.4
20290.770.171.4
20300.760.151.4

Great Crested Flycatcher Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lydia1820251967
Chandler1420031968
Alexander St1120251995
Whit Mtn.1020191994
Diboll920251968
Neches Bith920172016
Smyrna820101995
Caledonia720251969
Liberty Hill720251968
Wolfe City619871969
Thornton 2620101985
Weches620251995
Moon Lake 2620232013
Town Bluff520251967
Winchell520191971
Athens520251968
Olney520241969
Fred520251995
Big Sandy Bith520242018
Schroeder419971967
Oakwood419801971
Morton420251970
Dallas420241967
Grayback420241971
Clarendon420241968

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.