BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Texas

All statesAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in Texas has declined: down 37% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-37%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
145Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Crested Flycatcher Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Crested Flycatcher in Texas. See the full index history below.

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Texas is projected to fall about 24% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.76 (95% range 0.16–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-24%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.76Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.16–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Texas is projected to fall about 24% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.76 (95% range 0.16–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.830.221.4
20260.810.211.4
20270.800.191.4
20280.780.171.4
20290.760.161.4

Great Crested Flycatcher Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Chandler1420031968
Caledonia1020241969
Athens1020241968
Whit Mtn.1020191994
Livingston920241969
Neches Bith920172016
Smyrna820101995
Diboll720241968
Sadler720241969
Wolfe City619871969
Thornton 2620101985
Moon Lake 2620232013
Winchell520191971
Lydia520231967
Olney520241969
Big Sandy Bith520242018
Paige520242015
Schroeder419971967
Oakwood419801971
Ola420221967
Dallas420241967
Grayback420241971
Clarendon420241968
Walburg420241980
Cayuga420242001

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.