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Species · Connecticut · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Connecticut

All statesAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in Connecticut has increased: up 28% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+28%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Crested Flycatcher Trends in ConnecticutNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Crested Flycatcher in Connecticut. See the full index history below.

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Forecast in Connecticut

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Connecticut is projected to rise about 24% by 2029 — from 2.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.0 (95% range 1.6–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+24%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.6–4.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Connecticut is projected to rise about 24% by 2029 — from 2.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.0 (95% range 1.6–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.01.54.5
20263.01.54.5
20273.01.54.5
20283.01.54.5
20293.01.64.5

Great Crested Flycatcher Survey Routes in Connecticut

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in Connecticut.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Woodstock 21020242016
Warren620111972
Long Hill620191972
New Hartford519871972
Willimantic420181967
Woodstock320071968
Mid Haddam320241973
Granby320241988
E Hartland219921966
Uncasville220241973
Warren 2220242013
Mystic120231973
Buckingham120221966
Westbrook120241972
No Woodbury120231967
Sherman120191973
Greenwich120181967
Danbury120231969
Southington120241973
New Hartford120221994

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradodelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.