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Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Missouri

All statesAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in Missouri has edged up: up 18% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+18%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
94Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Crested Flycatcher Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Crested Flycatcher in Missouri. See the full index history below.

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Missouri is projected to rise about 21% by 2029 — from 3.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.8 (95% range 3.0–6.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+21%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.0–6.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Missouri is projected to rise about 21% by 2029 — from 3.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.8 (95% range 3.0–6.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.83.06.5
20264.83.06.5
20274.83.06.5
20284.83.06.5
20294.83.06.5

Great Crested Flycatcher Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lucerne2520212018
Whitewater1520241996
Ironton1319801973
Mcfall1320241994
Palace1320242013
Filley1220241975
Rockingham1220241971
Gildehouse1119891978
Barks920241994
Frazier820241967
Kingsville820241992
Weston820212013
Lincoln820242013
Cassville720221974
Sni Mills719901967
Madison720241971
Sticklervill720241970
Kearney720241996
Kirksville720231994
New Point720241994
Rueter720222022
Cascade620241967
Huntsville620241967
Frankford620241985
Barnard620181999

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.