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Species · Missouri · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Missouri

All statesAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in Missouri has edged up: up 14% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+14%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
95Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Crested Flycatcher Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Crested Flycatcher in Missouri. See the full index history below.

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Missouri is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 4.7 (95% range 3.0–6.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+5%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.0–6.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Missouri is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 4.7 (95% range 3.0–6.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.83.06.5
20274.73.06.5
20284.73.06.5
20294.73.06.5
20304.73.06.5

Great Crested Flycatcher Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mcfall2320251994
Frankford1920251985
Kingsville1420251992
Gerald1420252014
Ironton1319801973
Rockingham1320251971
Lincoln1320252013
Gildehouse1119891978
Rueter 21120252023
Ohio1020251972
Whitewater1020251996
Moselle1020252000
Palace920252013
Frazier820241967
Laclede820251994
Lucerne820252018
Weston820212013
Cascade720251967
Filley720251975
Sni Mills719901967
Madison720241971
Trenton720251968
Rueter720222022
Cp Girardeau620251967
Barks620251994

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.