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Species · Georgia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Georgia

All statesAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in Georgia has risen sharply: up 54% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+54%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
111Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Crested Flycatcher Trends in GeorgiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Great Crested Flycatcher has risen sharply in Georgia: up 54% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Forecast in Georgia

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Georgia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 14 (95% range 11–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±3.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+10%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±3.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Georgia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 14 (95% range 11–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±3.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025131116
2026131116
2027131116
2028141116
2029141116

Great Crested Flycatcher Survey Routes in Georgia

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in Georgia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wrightsville3320241966
Ware Co3020241986
Council3020242012
Weber3020242006
Rentz2820241977
Boston2720241975
Okefenokee2619921974
Stockton2620241977
Union2520232011
Shiloh2420242012
Baxley2320191966
Headlight2320242011
Glenmore2320242013
Ousley2320242015
Owensboro2320242010
Philema2320242010
White Hill2220242005
Piedmont Nwr2220031991
Henderson2120241973
Newton2020241975
Deepstep2020231975
Barges1920242011
Stoney Point1920072007
Fitzgerald1720241966
Pineora 21720242024

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.