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Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in Minnesota has declined: down 27% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-27%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
90Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Crested Flycatcher Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Crested Flycatcher in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Minnesota is projected to fall about 29% by 2030 — from 4.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 1.5–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-29%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.5–4.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Minnesota is projected to fall about 29% by 2030 — from 4.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 1.5–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.01.64.3
20273.01.64.3
20282.91.64.3
20292.91.54.3
20302.91.54.2

Great Crested Flycatcher Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Minnetonka2220251969
Beltrami1720251967
Princeton1520251969
Bemidji1419801967
Greenbush1320251993
Evergreen1220251967
Badger1120181978
Sherburne Nr1120251990
Osseo1020251967
Wigwam Bay1020231967
Ashby1020211997
Knapp920251967
Backus920251967
Edwards820241973
Brainerd820241993
Whitewater820001994
Lake Bronson720111978
Dawson620241982
Appleton620251978
Cohasset620221973
Lude620251978
Austin620231994
Fairmont620251993
Glenwood620191993
Bigfork620251993

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.