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Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesAerial insectivores

Great Crested Flycatcher in Minnesota has declined: down 39% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-39%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
90Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Great Crested Flycatcher Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Great Crested Flycatcher in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.8 (95% range 1.5–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.5–4.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Great Crested Flycatcher in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.8 (95% range 1.5–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.91.64.3
20262.91.64.2
20272.91.54.2
20282.81.54.2
20292.81.54.2

Great Crested Flycatcher Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Great Crested Flycatcher in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lude1720231978
Bemidji1419801967
Evergreen1320241967
Badger1120181978
Knapp1020241967
Wigwam Bay1020231967
Ashby1020211997
Chatfield 21020242005
Princeton820241969
Edwards820241973
Brainerd820241993
Greenbush820241993
Sherburne Nr820241990
Whitewater820001994
Lake Bronson720111978
Dawson620241982
St Stephen620161967
Backus620241967
Pine River620241967
Cohasset620221973
Beltrami620241967
Austin620231994
Glenwood620191993
Millville520191970
Osseo520241967

Great Crested Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourinebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.