BirdAnalyst
Species · West Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Least Flycatcher Population Trend in West Virginia

All statesAerial insectivores

Least Flycatcher in West Virginia has surged: up 573% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+573%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
46Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Least Flycatcher Trends in West VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Least Flycatcher has surged in West Virginia: up 573% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Least Flycatcher Population Forecast in West Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Least Flycatcher in West Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.93 (95% range 0.47–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.93Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.47–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Least Flycatcher in West Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.93 (95% range 0.47–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.900.431.4
20260.910.441.4
20270.920.451.4
20280.930.461.4
20290.930.471.4

Least Flycatcher Survey Routes in West Virginia

Routes recording Least Flycatcher in West Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Valley Head920241970
Green Bank820241977
Denmar720241989
Smithfield520142006
Bemis420242001
Berryburg419951981
Clear Creek319981995
Wymer320141995
Bismark320211976
Richwood320241980
Mt Storm319751966
Sleepy Creek319811968
Sutton219891989
Rockport220082003
Ruthbelle220241975
Hix119971976
Smoot120031986
Pedro120121996
Bramwell119801978
Ghent120231978
Hanover119801980
Welch120182006
Glade Run119951988
Bowden120191993
Hubbardstown120212018

Least Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutgeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.