BirdAnalyst
Species · West Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Least Flycatcher Population Trend in West Virginia

All statesAerial insectivores

Least Flycatcher in West Virginia has surged: up 757% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+757%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
46Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Least Flycatcher Trends in West VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Least Flycatcher has surged in West Virginia: up 757% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Least Flycatcher Population Forecast in West Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Least Flycatcher in West Virginia is projected to fall about 32% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.98 (95% range 0.50–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-32%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.98Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.50–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Least Flycatcher in West Virginia is projected to fall about 32% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.98 (95% range 0.50–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.940.461.4
20270.950.471.4
20280.960.481.4
20290.970.491.5
20300.980.501.5

Least Flycatcher Survey Routes in West Virginia

Routes recording Least Flycatcher in West Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Valley Head1820251970
Green Bank1020251977
Bemis720252001
Denmar720251989
Richwood520251980
Smithfield520142006
Berryburg419951981
Clear Creek319981995
Wymer320141995
Bismark320251976
Three Forks320251971
Mt Storm319751966
Sleepy Creek319811968
Canaan220251974
Sutton219891989
Dailey220251975
Rockport220082003
Meadowville220251972
Ruthbelle220241975
Glade Run 2220252008
Hix119971976
Smoot120031986
Pedro120121996
Bramwell119801978
Ghent120231978

Least Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutgeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.